Are estimates based on historical data or SMEs better?


by: Tom Cagley

The discussion of whether estimates based on historical data are better than estimates from subject matter experts (SME) is a difficult question.  We suggest that as SMEs are actually repositories of historical data (their memory – as good or bad as that might be – assuming that they are ever informed about actuals) the question is a false dichotomy.  Rather the question is more a reflection of whether a tool based estimate is better than a SME/expert based estimate.

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